...while wondering what ever happened to Paul Silas

The first round of the NBA playoffs is (almost) in the books. Let's take a look back, a peek forward and throw in some musings about the coaching carousel.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks
What we predicted: Celtics in 4
What Happened: TBD
What we know so far about Boston: KG still might need Spree to get out of the first round.
What we know so far about Atlanta: They are too young to know they were supposed to be swept.
Revised prediction: We love the spunk of the ATL but can't bet against the C-Men in a home Game 7.

Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76’ers
What we predicted: 76’ers in 7
What happened: Pistons in 6
What we learned about Detroit: Flip Saunders is the worst coach in the NBA.
What next for Philadelphia: The have a great core of young, athletic talent, but need a power forward and a sniper – someone like Kyle Korver. Wait…

Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors
What we predicted: Magic in 6
What happened: Magic in 5
What we learned about Orlando: Jameer Nelson can step it up when needed.
What next for Toronto: This team slid a bit this year. They need another shooter and a veteran to make the next step. Sam Mitchell might be in trouble here.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards
What we predicted: Cavaliers in 7
What Happened: Cavaliers in 6
What we learned about Cleveland: They are still LeBron and a landfill.
What next for Loser: A slide from mediocrity to miserable. Color Agent Zero gone.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets

What we predicted: Lakers in 6
What happened: Lakers in 4
What we learned about Los Angeles: This team can win the NBA title this season.
What next for Denver: They still need a point guard -- something they should have dealt Nene for back when he still had a last name. But with him recovering from cancer, his trade value is nil. Looks like they’ll ride this group into the ground, probably never getting out of the first round.

New Orleans Hornets vs Dallas Mavericks
What we predicted: Mavericks in 7
What happened: Hornets in 5
What we learned about New Orleans: Chris Paul is playoff-ready and the regular season was not a mirage.
What next for Dallas: Keep Dirk, Kidd and Bass and get on the phone with Portland to get as much of their youth, length and draft picks as they can for Josh Howard. Cut loose free agents Juwon Howard, Jamaal Magloire, Devin George, JJ Barea and Tyron Lue, then listen to offers for anyone else on the roster.

San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns
What we predicted: Suns in 7
What happened: Suprs in 5
What we learned about San Antonio: They’re not as old as we thought.
What next for Phoenix: They need to replace the defense they lost when Shawn Marion and Kurt Thomas left and they need to find a way around Hack-a-Shaq. The window is closing, but not as fast as you might think.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets
What we predicted: Jazz in 4
What happened: Jazz in 6
What we learned about Utah: They'll let a bad team back in a long series.
What next for Houston: They are at best a middle-of-the-pack squad, with not much in the way of trade assets. They'll struggle to make the playoffs until they learn to better evaluate talent.

ROUND TWO MATCHUPS:

Boston Celtics or Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers

What can we say here? The Cavs are garbage, the Celtics are under-performing and the Hawks are in over their head. None of them deserve to win. But we'll go Celtics over Cavs or Cavs over Hawks.

Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic

The Pistons got a scare from Philly, Orlando rolled. We think these teams are pretty evenly matched, except when it comes to the bench.
Magic in 6.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Utah Jazz
The MVP vs the up-and-comers. The Lake Show sweep of Denver was impressive. The Jazz not brooming Houston was not. Jackson/Sloan will be just as intriguing as the matchups on the court. This will be a very entertaining series.
Lakers in 7.

New Orleans Hornets vs San Antonio Spurs
Were the Mavs that bad or the Bugs that good? Were the Spurs really dominant or did the Suns have their spirit sapped in Game 1? There are many questions going into this series and a potentially epic PG match up between Pepe le Peu and CP3. Rings and experience go to the Texans, home court and athleticism to the Swamp Things.
Spurs in 7.


GRADING THE TRADES:

As the dist settles on the first round, let's take a second to give our take on the deals that made the difference. Or not.

AI to Denver
This trade made the Nuggets a solid playoff team last season. At the time, it looked like a bust for Philly. Fast-forward a year and the Sixers won more playoff games in round one than Denver. With Philly's core being younger, their conference softer and their payroll $11 million under the cap, who looks like the winner of this deal now?

The Rape of Memphis
What can we say?

Shaq to Phoenix
We still maintain this was a good deal for all involved. Shaquille O'Neal was integrated into the Suns better than most thought possible and Miami got some nice pieces to pair with D-Wade in their rebuilding effort. What Shaq needs to do now is knock the first guy who Haqs him, on his ass, sit out the 20 game suspension, come back, deck the next guy that does it, take the 40 game suspension, use the last 20 games of the regular season to get into game shape and enter the playoffs daring anyone to try it again.

Korver to Utah
Philly needs to make good on the picks they got from Utah in order to make this a clear-cut win-win, but so far it looks that way. Kyle Korver's value to the Jazz is obvious. His absence from the Sixers led to the development of Thaddeus Young and Willie Green -- development that unexpectedly led Philadelphia to a playoff birth.

Kidd to Dallas
Too soon to tell. So far, this is a bust. Trading a 24 year-old point guard for a 35 year-old, along with your backup center, then getting bounced in Round 1 and terming your coach pretty much spells failure. With a coach more in-line with Jason Kidd's style of play, a full training camp and season surrounded by what will most-assuredly be a new supporting cast, we'll know better in a year if this deal was as bad as it looks today.

COACHING CAROUSEL:

it used to be, you won 30 games, you might be in trouble. You went .500 and you were safe. You win 50, hell, you're getting an extension. Not so anymore. With the ramping up of intensity in the West, you lose more than 20 games, you might be looking for a new job. Let's look at the teams, and the guys making news.

New York
Headline of the Year goes to the NYPost, with "BYE-SAIAH", sub-headed with, "Knicks FINALLY fire Thomas". Ya gotta love The Post. Zeke was horrible. How he lasted that long, we'll never know. But even though this team is attrocious and their salary cap is screwed until 2012 or 13, this is still the New York Knicks. This will be a plum assignment for someone to grow in. Mark Jackson appears to be the front-runner. If these guys couldn't take Larry Brown -- (all bluster, all success) Donnie Walsh better not even think of hiring Avery Johnson.

Milwaukee
We panned the hiring of Larry Krystowiak. For good reason, as it turned out. Scott Skiles is a good hire. He would have been better in New York, but he went for the first job offered. He'll help move this franchise toward respectability. But this is still not a very good team.

Charlotte
MJ scored the best coach available. Hell, the best coach alive. Larry Brown would have been the perfect hire for Dallas. Or Chicago. In getting him for the Bobcats, President Jordan just guaranteed the fledgling franchise its first playoff birth.

Miami
Pat Riley screws Ron Jeremy, snags another ring then bolts when the team sucks again. We've lost a lot of respect for Riles. But we still love that hair.

Denver
There were brief, quickly-dispelled rumors that George Karl might be shown the door. Coach released a statement saying he will be, "tougher on my players", next year. With the return of Furious George, look for an already psychotic team to absolutely implode in the next twelve months and for Karl to be out in a year.

Chicago
A team not nearly as bad as its record, but not as good as before their deadline deal. Mike D'Antoni dreams aside, this is a team built for Avery Johnson. Strong on defense, not very good on offense, responds to discipline then tunes a guy out. AJ can come here, build them into a contender then pass them on to someone who can close the deal.

Phoenix
If the Suns fire Mike D'Antoni they are idiots. We've always seen him as a CBA guy who inherrited a good team but never maximized their potential. But the aftermath of the Shaq trade dispelled notion. Phoenix scored more fast-break points after acquiring Big Cactus than before. The problem is they have no defenders. D'Antoni is still an awfully whiny little bitch, but not one who should be fired.

Washington
Eddie Jordan gets good results from a mediocre group of talent. The only reason to fire the guy is if the Wizards' front office believes the inexplicable, yet commonly-held perception that this team is better than it actually is. So he's probably out.

Toronto
Sam Mitchell has done a lot better than we thought possible since naming him the First Coach to be Fired in our 2006 NBA Preview Edition. We admit it -- we blew that one. This guy is a good coach who gets the best out of his team. Still, there are whispers. If Phoenix pulls the trigger on Mike D'Antoni, look for the transplanted Bryan Colangelo to make a hard run at bringing his former coach North of the Border.

Philadelphia
Mo Cheeks went from the brink of termination, to a three-year extension. He has his team drinking the Kool Aid and has finally begun to pay off on the potential.

Seattle
Lame-duck franchise, retread coach. Why make a move? PJ Carlesimo (we still LOVE that picture) will be there next year. Look for the Oklahoma Runaways to better-deal him when the moving vans arrive.

Detroit
Flip Saunders has already cost his team one championship, maybe two. He is without exception the worst coach in the NBA. Perhaps in its history. That being said, we hope to hell his Pistons have a long playoff run this season. Because the longer they play, the less chance there is he gets fired and Dallas tries to hire him.

Dallas
Avery Johnson needed to go. We have much love for the Little General but in the end, he lost his team. There's no coming back from that. So where does Dallas go now? Well, they really blew it by not wrapping Larry Brown up before the Bobcats did. His three-year shelf life matches the reminder of JKidd's contract nicely and the Mavs could have made one more run at glory with this core. And they just might have done it. But with LB in NC, it's on to Plan B. So who's left? Jeff Van Gundy is a defensive guy. Dallas desperately needs some offensive creativity. Mike Fratello is a dictator. We see how that worked for the Mavs. The team can't go with a no-name guy and they can't afford to train a first-timer. That rules out the Assistants du Jour. it probably rules out Eric Musslelman, too -- a guy we really like. College coaches are generally not successful, but the one guy we would consider would be John Calipari. He failed before in the Association, but his pre-Kidd Nets squads were wretched. He also just signed a long-term extension at Memphis. While college coaches are not particularly known for loyalty -- or truth, JC seems to genuinely love life on campus and would want to eventually return there. Screwing over his current employer would probably kill his future. Paul Silas? He's always been one of our faves. Doug Collins? A guy who knows how to coach both sides of the ball who only failed in Washington because his players were a bunch of punks. With a veteran-laden team in Dallas, he makes a lot more sense. But we expect Rick Carlisle to be the guy, with the caveat that he hire -- and as opposed to his predecessor, actually listen to -- a lead assistant with a heavy offensive focus. Carlisle has shown that he is even-tempered, detail-oriented and defensive-minded, while still appreciating the need to score the ball -- all things that Dirk Nowitzki has said the team needs in its new floor general.

Until next time,
Paz
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