...while wonering what ever happened to Larry O'Brien

or, "The Beautiful Season".

The Playoffs are upon us and it is time to flex our prognostical muscles.

By and large, our preseason playoff projections were on target. We missed on the Timberwolves tumble and the Sonics surge (like you didn't too), and we had Cleveland in and Brooklyn out. Beyond those stumbles, we were dead-on. Let's see how we fare from here:

(L)EASTERN CONFERENCE

Round One

(1) Miami Heat vs (8) Brooklyn Nets

We had Jersey finishing last in the Least. This team making it to the Dance is nothing short of amazing. OK, New Cavs owner Dan Gilbert going all Mark Cuban (without the hoops savvy) on his organization had just as much to do with it. Still, I didn't see this one coming.

Miami has proven what we have said all along: the only irreplaceable player in the NBA is one Shaquille O'Neal. Look at LA. Now look at Miami. Now look at LA again. It's ok to smile.

Miami in 5

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(2) Detroit Pistons vs (7) Philadelphia 76'ers

There's just not that much of interest here. This series will be what it is supposed to be. A 2 seed is supposed to thrash a 7 seed. AI vs Larry Brown? Been there, done that. They made up at the Olympics. The C-Webb effect? Please. He's one of the worst locker room guys in the league. Now that worthlessness is matched by his performance on the court.

The Sixers are right back where they started: Allen Iverson and a bunch of scrubs. The only reason they are in the post season is because Iverson treats every game like the seventh game of the NBA Finals. Over the course of an 82-game series, that attitude will win you enough games to make it to the playoffs. In the playoffs, it just keeps you up with the Joneses (or the Browns), and then it all comes down to talent.

Detroit in 5

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(3) Boston Celtics vs (6) Indian Pacers

Brawl. There, it's out of the way. Henceforth there will be no mention of the Malice of Auburn Hills. The real story of this Indiana season is that Rick Carlisle started Eddie Gill, Fred Jones, James Jones, Britton Johnsen and something called David Harrison nine times. He used 52 different starting lineups -- in an 82-game season. Everyone and their dog was either hurt or suspended at some point during the campaign. Still, our preseason pick to win it all is in the playoffs.

In Boston, Danny Ainge ate crow and Employee Number 8 came to the rescue of an otherwise forgettable Celtic season. By all rights, a number three seed -- a division winner for crying out loud -- should win this series easily. Not.

Indiana in 7

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(4) Washington Wizards vs (5) Chicago Bulls

This is what I call the litmus test series. If you are not from Chicago or Washington and this is still the most interesting Round One series to you, you are a true NBA fan. You understand the history of these teams. You understand their seasons. In short, you actually follow the league through the 82 game grind and don't just tolerated it until you can get to the "good stuff" in the spring.

The last time Washington made the playoffs, they were Bullets. They lost that 1997 opening-round series to these same (well not these same) Bulls, 0-3. Since then they have been through seven coaches, two General Managers, seven losing (and one barely winning) seasons, one Legend, one name change and countless rebuilding programs. In short, they have been exactly what a bad organization is: unstable, disappointing and perpetually awful. Over the last two years though, they have been slowly putting it together. They have a young, interesting nucleus, and for the first time since their 1978 championship season, the future looks good in the Capitol.

Since that 1997 Washington/Chicago series, the Bulls have been through four coaches, two General Managers, six losing seasons (albeit preceded by a championship), one Legend, one annoyingly-persistent nickname and countless rebuilding programs. They too have been the picture of a franchise in disarray that has gotten their act together, and once again the IncrediBulls have a bright future.

This is what NBA fans love. Neither of these teams is going to the Conference Finals, let alone spending their summer getting sized for rings. This post-season run will be all about getting some experience and learning all about life in the playoffs. It will be a hard-fought, exciting series. What a 4-5 matchup should be.

Injuries will be the difference.

Washington in 7

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WESTERN CONFERENCE
Round One

(1) Phoenix Suns vs (8) Memphis Grizzlies

In our preview we had Phoenix right at the top of the conference. They did not disappoint.

Neither did Memphis, who overcame a rocky start and got to the playoffs, along the way confirming another preseason prediction : that the Pistons' defensive-minded championship run would lead to someone hiring The Czar. He was a good fit here.

This will go as a 1-8 matchup should.

Phoenix in 5

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(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (7) Denver Nuggets

The Spurs are the Spurs. They win.

We also had Denver in the upper echelon of the conference, in our preview. If not for the horrible handling of the Jeff Bzdelik firing, they would be.

Tim Duncan's ankle will have a lot to do with the outcome of this series. The Nuggs are loaded, but inexperienced. Voshon Leonard went down on Opening Night and will return for Game One. That's not enough time to help. Furious George and the boys will give the Spurs a scare, but they're still a season away from a deep run.

San Antonio in 7

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(3) Seattle SuperSonics vs (6) Sacramento Queens

I'm calling this the Honorary Eastern Conference Series. Honestly, if either of these teams played any other Western Conference team, I'd call it a sweep against. This series is a travesty. This is all the validation one needs for a system whereby winning ones division should guarantee nothing other than a playoff spot.

Someone has to win this piece of garbage, so we'll go with who is healthier.

Seattle in 7

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(4) Dallas Mavericks vs (5) Houston Rockets

And now we know who gets screwed under the new system. To get to the finals, Dallas will have to go through Houston, Phoenix and San Antonio. Then they would get Miami or Detroit. That's just not right. If Denver had not mishandled the Bzdelik issue, the Mavs would most-assuredly have had Denver in the first round, leaving the Spurs route as Houston, Sea/Sac, Dal/Pho. The system needs to change.

As for this series, the Rockettes made some decent midseason changes, but they made some bad ones too. They're a good team, but they have two stars and ten role players. If those two stars were MJ and Scottie the Sidekick, great. Unfortunately, in this case the two stars are Tracy McGrady, who freely admits he dogged it in Orlando and Yao Ming, who is a serviceable center, at best. You can't turn excellence on and off. This team lucked into the five seed, and their weaknesses will be exposed in this series.

In Dallas you have the hottest team in the league. And the deepest.

Dallas in 5

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We'll analyze the rest of the postseason in more detail after each round, (since we'll probably have to revise it all because of our ineptitude), but here's a preview of what's to come:

Miami over Washington (the Shaq and Flash show rolls on)
Detroit over Indiana (in seven)
San Antonio over Seattle (in three, via a special league dispensation)
Dallas over Phoenix

Miami over Detroit
Dallas over San Antonio

Miami Heat win the NBA Championship over the Dallas Mavericks, in 6.

Until next time,
paz